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John List26 January 2022

#566: John List — A Master Economist on Strategic Quitting, How to Practice Theory of Mind, Learnings from Uber, Optimizations to Boost Donations, the Primitives of Decision-Making, and How Field Experiments Reveal Hidden Realities

7Frameworks
12Insights

Frameworks in this episode

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 2

Myth Buster20:30

Why Charitable Giving Does Not Predict Tipping

List finds that women give more than men to charity within every income bucket in the tax data he studied, yet men tip more than women on Uber. He argues that the social setting helps explain the reversal: charitable giving can be visible or face-to-face, while Uber's tipping flow was anonymous and separated from the driver.

  • Women gave more to charity within each income bucket in List's tax data
  • Men tipped more than women in Uber's data
  • Uber asked for a tip after rider and driver were separated
  • Generosity in one setting should not be assumed to transfer to another

women in every income bucket give more than men to charitable causes

John List · 22:30

in charitable giving where you do it face to face or you do it to be recognized women are given a lot more than men

John List · 24:00
#generosity#tipping#charity#gender
Myth Buster46:00

People Became Nicer When Buyers Could Verify Quality

At baseball-card markets, List compared behavior when participants knew they were in an experiment with behavior in ordinary transactions. Sellers acted generously under observation, pursued their own income when anonymous, and became more cooperative again when a professional certifier could grade what they sold because reputation and repeat business were now at stake.

  • People behaved generously when they knew they were observed
  • The same people maximized income in anonymous market transactions
  • Professional quality certification changed behavior again
  • Reputation mattered because sellers valued long-run repeat business

they care about their reputations and whenever you can check them on their reputation they're nice

John List · 48:30

when you can't check them on their their reputation or you can't check the quality of the goods they sell they outright screw people over

John List · 48:30
#reputation#markets#accountability#social preferences

Explainer· 2

Explainer24:30

Only One Percent of Uber Riders Tipped Every Trip

From 23 million observations, List reports that only about one percent of riders tipped on every trip and roughly 60 percent never tipped. About 15 percent of trips received a tip, and when a tip occurred it averaged roughly 10 to 12 percent of the fare.

  • Only about one percent of riders tipped every trip
  • Roughly 60 percent never tipped
  • About 15 percent of trips received a tip
  • Conditional tips averaged about 10 to 12 percent of the fare

only one percent of writers tip every trip

John List · 25:00

roughly 60 never tip

John List · 25:30
#uber#tipping#behavioral economics#data
Explainer1:58:00

How Fishermen's Work Structure Spilled Into Community Life

List compares two Brazilian fishing communities: ocean fishermen worked in teams and shared their catch, while inland fishermen worked alone on a lake. His experiments found that cooperative or solo workplace structures carried into community behavior, with stronger public-good provision in the team-based society.

  • Ocean fishing required coordinated teams and shared catch
  • Lake fishing was performed individually
  • Community behavior reflected the structure of work
  • The team-based community provided more public goods

the workplace bleeds over to society

John List · 1:59:00

what happens in the workplace really spills over to the community

John List · 1:59:30
#culture#cooperation#workplace#brazil

Story· 3

Story29:00

Why John List Turned Down Amazon's Early Stock Options

Jeff Bezos offered List a heavily option-based role as Amazon's chief economist when the stock was about seven dollars a share. List declined because Amazon would not let him publish the work in academic journals; he says he would make the same choice again because he saw publication as necessary to solve problems beyond one company.

  • Bezos wanted List to build Amazon's economics team
  • The offer was heavily laden with stock options
  • List required the ability to publish scientific work
  • He says the foregone millions did not change his judgment

i did give up millions of dollars no doubt about that but in the end i'm a scientist

John List · 30:30

i not only wanted to solve amazon.com's problems i want to solve the world's problems

John List · 31:00
#amazon#career decisions#science#publishing
Story1:29:30

How 149 Rejections Helped List Keep Taking Research Risks

List applied to 150 academic jobs and received only one interview while field experiments were widely dismissed in economics. He says beginning at the University of Central Florida gave him room to take high-variance research bets without the social pressure to follow colleagues at a top-ranked department.

  • Academic hiring was strongly hierarchical
  • Field experiments were considered a career risk in the early 1990s
  • List saved all 149 rejection letters
  • A less prestigious starting point reduced pressure to conform

i got 149 people who told me you're not even worthwhile talking to in an initial interview

John List · 1:33:00

i could take chances and i can continue to take high variance plays

John List · 1:33:30
#academia#rejection#field experiments#career
Story1:41:30

Two Sentences Helped Raise $100 Million in Taxes

List's team worked with the Dominican Republic tax authority to augment its standard letters to non-payers with brief behavioral messages. Reminders about jail exposure, public disclosure, and others paying on time produced an additional $100 million in tax receipts, which List describes as about 0.2 percent of the country's GDP.

  • The intervention changed direct letters already sent to non-payers
  • Messages invoked social norms and non-financial consequences
  • The change added only a sentence or two
  • List reports $100 million in additional receipts

70 of people have paid their taxes on time why haven't you

John List · 1:42:00

we raised a hundred million dollars more in tax receipts

John List · 1:43:00
#behavioral nudges#taxes#dominican republic#messaging

Q&A· 1

Q&A2:05:30

John List Says Not to Start With The Wealth of Nations

Asked how a modern non-economist should approach Adam Smith, List advises against beginning with the original Wealth of Nations because its language and extended explanations are difficult without economic background. He recommends The Theory of Moral Sentiments first for its early behavioral-economic insights, followed by economics classes before returning to Wealth of Nations.

  • List considers The Wealth of Nations arduous for a non-expert
  • Economic training helps reveal why Smith's ideas were original
  • The Theory of Moral Sentiments exposes Smith's behavioral thinking
  • List recommends returning to The Wealth of Nations after economics study

i would probably say don't read the original

John List · 2:06:30

after you take several econ classes then go to the wealth of nations

John List · 2:09:30
#adam smith#books#economics#reading

Takeaway· 4

Takeaway32:30

Why Tipping Presets Can Be Too High or Too Low

List says a tipping interface should offer selectable choices rather than require every rider to type a number. Presets that are too high push more people to zero, while presets that are too low leave money on the table; the optimal range can vary with a consumer's traits and tipping history.

  • Selectable boxes reduce the need to enter a number
  • Overly high presets can increase zero tips
  • Overly low presets can suppress driver income
  • The useful range varies across consumers

you want there to be a choice you don't wanna have people fill in the number

John List · 33:00

make sure the boxes aren't too high because if they're too high you're going to get a zero

John List · 33:00
#tipping#user interface#choice architecture#uber
Takeaway39:00

Words Alone Did Not Repair Uber's Bad Trips

After showing that bad trips reduced riders' future spending, List's team tested apologies sent within an hour. A basic apology had little effect, but the same message with a five-dollar coupon reversed about a third of the damage from the bad experience.

  • The team first estimated revenue lost after bad trips
  • Apologies were delivered within an hour
  • A plain written apology did not materially repair the damage
  • Adding a five-dollar coupon recovered about one-third of the loss

nearly every time you need that cash coupon words just don't matter

John List · 41:00

a little bit of cash with the with the apology ends up undoing about a third of the bad stuff

John List · 41:00
#apologies#service recovery#uber#customer experience
Takeaway1:25:00

Paying for Pickup Time Reduced Bad Trip Rejections

List says drivers can reject trips strategically when unpaid pickup time is long and the passenger's ride is short. Lyft addressed part of the problem by paying drivers from dispatch to pickup, while cancellation fees and trip-count bonuses create additional incentives to complete less attractive rides.

  • Unpaid pickup time makes short rides unattractive
  • Lyft began paying from dispatch to passenger pickup
  • Cancellation fees apply consequences to drivers and riders
  • Trip-count bonuses can make a set of short rides worthwhile

one way to get around that problem is to pay the driver for time that they spend from when they get the dispatch to when…

John List · 1:26:30

the only way you can take 50 trips is if you do a bunch of short trips

John List · 1:29:00
#lyft#driver incentives#ride sharing#market design
Takeaway1:59:30

Three Words in a Job Ad Changed Who Negotiated

List says that explicitly stating wages are negotiable gives women permission to negotiate. In his data, women negotiated as much as men and reached similar wages when the phrase appeared, but did not negotiate when it was omitted, creating lower starting pay.

  • A job advertisement can shape later pay outcomes
  • Explicit permission changed women's negotiation behavior
  • Women negotiated as much as men when negotiability was stated
  • Omitting the phrase contributed to lower starting wages

when you say in your job ad that wages are negotiable women will negotiate as much as men

John List · 2:00:00

if you leave that sentence out women will not negotiate at all

John List · 2:00:30
#negotiation#wages#job ads#gender pay gap