The 100-to-10-Year Horizon
Use the long-term destination to select a buildable ten-year step
- Difficulty
- Advanced
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 96%
The 100-to-10-Year Horizon begins with a distant but easy-to-judge destination. Ask what system humanity will probably use in a century: for example, whether shipping will still burn bunker fuel or use autonomous sailing vessels. At that distance, current incumbents, regulations, and institutional objections can change, making the direction clearer. Then compress the question: does the transition truly require a century, or can a credible project deliver it in ten years? The ten-year horizon matters because venture funds, careers, and major engineering programs can align around it. Finally, define the first small step that starts the transition now. The framework does not forecast every event across a century. It uses the long view to choose direction, then imposes a practical ten-year boundary to make the vision investable and executable.
Origin
Holman says he learned long-horizon thinking while working for Jeff Bezos on Blue Origin, whose multi-generational vision still had to begin with one small step.
Core principles
- 01A long horizon removes temporary objections from the destination
- 02The future destination should be easier to judge than the near-term path
- 03A ten-year project aligns with capital and career machinery
- 04Every distant vision must begin with a concrete first step
How to run it
- 1
Look out 100 years
Describe the likely mature solution a century from now without assuming today’s companies, regulations, or bottlenecks remain fixed. Choose a direction that is straightforward to judge at that distance.
Pro tip Compare physical systems, not just brands or current products.
Watch out Do not treat the distant picture as a detailed forecast.
- 2
Remove temporary objections
List current barriers and ask which could plausibly disappear over a century. Use that exercise to distinguish temporary resistance from a fundamental constraint.
Pro tip Include incumbent failure, regulatory change, and technical progress.
Watch out Physical impossibility does not disappear merely because the horizon is long.
- 3
Compress to 10 years
Ask whether a team could create the decisive transition within a decade. If so, shape the opportunity around that deliverable.
Pro tip Use the ten-year boundary to force a concrete technical and commercial path.
Watch out A twenty-year dependency may not fit ten-year venture capital.
- 4
Align the machinery
Check whether investors, founders, and key partners can commit for the required period. Favor projects whose milestones fit fund and career horizons.
Pro tip Use historical projects completed within a decade to challenge institutional sluggishness.
- 5
Take the small first step
Define the first experiment, prototype, or organization that begins the long transition. Make it valuable as progress even though the full destination remains distant.
Pro tip Let the first step prove that the direction can become an executable program.
Watch out Do not let a grand vision substitute for an immediate build.
In the wild
Holman asks whether ships will still burn bunker oil in 100 years or whether self-sailing cargo ships are the obvious destination. He then asks whether that future can be built in ten years rather than waiting a century.
→ The distant direction becomes a venture-compatible ten-year company-building challenge.
Blue Origin’s vision extends to a future where humans live beyond Earth, potentially over millennia. Holman says the company itself represents one small step that can begin that future now.
→ A multi-generational ambition becomes an organization capable of measurable near-term progress.
Common mistakes
Freezing today for a century
Assuming current incumbents and regulations remain unchanged hides plausible long-term directions.
Stopping at the grand vision
A compelling century-scale destination still needs a ten-year project and an immediate first step.
Ignoring the capital clock
A project that cannot produce meaningful results within its investors’ horizon may not be venture-compatible.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for selecting ambitious deep-tech projects whose near-term objections obscure a clear long-term destination.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for urgent operational problems that require action in days rather than a venture-scale transition.
From the transcript
“So then ask yourself, does it have to take a 100 years or could we do it in 10?”
“Blue Origin is that one small step.”
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