The And Then What Test
Price the state you land in, not the problem you remove
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~days to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 88%
The mechanism is a forced thought experiment run forward in time. You take the proposed solution, assume it succeeds, and then describe the state you would actually inhabit — the workflows, the retraining, the workarounds, the support burden, the attention it consumes. Repeating the question compounds the view outward across second and third-order effects. The critical addition is that the accounting must include brain drain, which almost nobody prices, and the comparison must be against the resulting state rather than against present frustration. Parrish's observation is that the larger the team, the more often it solves non-problems, because activity feels like progress; asking 'and then what?' converts that feeling back into a ledger.
Origin
Extracted from The Tim Ferriss Show. Parrish names it as his favourite question in problem-definition sessions, alongside inversion and the stoic pre-mortem, as a way of putting a different lens on a problem.
Core principles
- 01Every solution relocates you into a new state that has its own costs.
- 02Removing a problem is not the same as improving your position.
- 03Brain drain is a real cost and almost never counted.
- 04Feeling productive is not evidence of a better outcome.
- 05Second-order effects are visible in advance if you simply keep asking.
How to run it
- 1
Assume the solution works
Grant the proposal complete success so the analysis is about consequences rather than execution risk.
- 2
Describe the resulting day
Walk through a concrete day in the post-solution world rather than reasoning abstractly about benefits.
Pro tip Look specifically for the things you currently do a lot that the new state handles worse.
- 3
Ask again, and again
Apply the same question to the new state at least twice more to surface second and third-order effects.
Watch out Stopping after one pass usually leaves the expensive consequences undiscovered.
- 4
Price all four currencies
Cost the outcome in time, money, effort, and brain drain, and write the brain drain figure down explicitly.
Pro tip Brain drain is the cost people most reliably omit and most reliably regret.
- 5
Compare states, not pains
Judge the post-solution state against the do-nothing state, not against how annoying the current problem feels.
Watch out Comparing against present frustration makes almost any change look like an improvement.
In the wild
Parrish applies the question directly to Ferriss's inbox consolidation: if we switch to a new email platform, and then what? The new software may not do something you rely on daily, so you build a workaround. It is completely different, so everyone needs training. It is less supported and updates less often. Each is invisible while you are focused on the single problem of scattered accounts, and each is obvious the moment you describe the resulting day.
→ A supposedly clean consolidation is revealed to carry retraining, workaround, and support costs that were never in the decision.
Ferriss notes that speaking engagements are the main income source for many bestselling authors, and that they are addictive: you fly out, you get a large cheque, you do it again. Run forward, the state you land in is a calendar booked nine months ahead, with the big rocks of creative work crowded out by pebbles. The first-order gain is obvious and measurable; the second-order cost is the work you can no longer fit.
→ Ferriss categorically stopped taking speaking engagements for roughly five to eight years.
Common mistakes
Counting only the problem removed
A solution is scored on what it fixes while the new obligations, workarounds, and attention costs it creates go unpriced.
Mistaking activity for progress
Making a change feels like work, which is why large teams keep solving problems that were not worth solving.
Ignoring brain drain
Cognitive overhead rarely appears in any business case, yet it is often the largest ongoing cost of a change.
Is it for you?
Best for
Anyone evaluating a tool switch, a process change, or a commitment that feels obviously worth doing.
Not ideal for
Fully reversible, cheap experiments where the cost of analysis exceeds the cost of just trying it.
From the transcript
“I love the and then what question because it's like okay if we solve this problem what state are we in and what is the…”
“they switch out the software to solve one problem and they're ignorant to the 67 other problems they just created”
From the episode
#695: Shane Parrish on Wisdom from Warren Buffett, Rules for Better Thinking, How to Reduce Blind Spots, The Dangers of Mental Models, and More