Big Pond, Good Fishermen
Screen opportunities for market size and a team capable of winning
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 4
- Confidence
- 94%
Rich Barton screens startup ideas by asking whether the opportunity is a big pond and whether good fishermen are available to pursue it. The process begins with a conspicuous consumer problem, but problem severity alone is insufficient: founders must determine whether solving it can support a large market. Barton contrasts this with opportunities that address genuine frustrations but remain commercially small. Once the pond is large, the team matters. Barton and Lloyd Frink knew a leading digital real-estate marketplace would eventually exist, even though they did not yet know its precise business model. That combination of inevitability, scale, and capable people justified continued experimentation until Zillow found its compelling product.
Origin
Barton described the screen while explaining how he and Lloyd Frink selected the opportunity that became Zillow.
Core principles
- 01A painful problem can still be a small opportunity
- 02Start with a market large enough to support a major outcome
- 03Pair the opportunity with people capable of exploiting it
- 04Accept early uncertainty about the exact business model
How to run it
- 1
Find an obvious problem
Observe how consumers interact with the world and look for situations that provoke the reaction, 'Why is it this way?' Treat those dislocations as candidate opportunities.
Pro tip Start with problems you experience directly and understand as a consumer.
Watch out Do not assume every frustrating problem supports a meaningful business.
- 2
Size the pond
Determine whether the opportunity is large enough to support the kind of company you want to build. Consider whether the product could expand the market rather than merely take a slice of its initial category.
Pro tip Look beyond the narrow first use case to the full behavior or transaction the product could serve.
Watch out A big problem may still represent a small commercial opportunity.
- 3
Assess the fishermen
Identify whether the founding team has the curiosity, skills, and conviction to explore the market. Barton relied on his prior experience with Lloyd Frink and their shared conviction about digital marketplaces.
Pro tip Favor collaborators whose performance and appetite for the problem you already know.
Watch out A large market does not compensate for a team unable to navigate it.
- 4
Test before fixing the model
Run contained experiments to discover the product that attracts an audience. Allow the exact business model to remain unresolved while learning what users strongly value.
Pro tip Self-fund bounded early tests when resources allow, preserving flexibility while the product takes shape.
Watch out Do not confuse uncertainty about monetization with uncertainty about whether the market will exist.
In the wild
Barton and Lloyd Frink believed a leading digital real-estate marketplace was inevitable, but they did not know its business model. Their first home-auction idea failed because housing lacked a real-time liquid market and required customers to learn a radically different buying behavior. In pursuing price discovery, the team found the Zestimate and paired home values with aerial maps and stock-like charts.
→ The team discovered the compelling product that launched Zillow to millions of visitors.
Barton rejected a travel-guide CD-ROM after recognizing that the entire US travel-book market was small and the product could not travel conveniently with customers. He instead demonstrated online access to airline reservation systems and argued that direct consumer booking could create the world's largest seller of travel.
→ Microsoft funded the venture that became Expedia.
Common mistakes
Equating pain with market size
A problem can be genuine and severe while the available revenue opportunity remains too small for the intended company.
Demanding a complete model too early
Barton and Frink proceeded because the marketplace felt inevitable, then used experiments to discover the right entry product and model.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for founders comparing several consumer startup ideas before committing significant capital or time.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for lifestyle businesses whose owners deliberately prefer a small, bounded market.
From the transcript
“It's giant. It's a big pond, you know, and so my business criteria for doing stuff is, you know, is it a big pond and…”
“a lot of entrepreneurs make this mistake of identifying a really big problem but it is just a small opportunity”
“We knew 100% that there would be a leading digital real estate marketplace in the US at some point.”
From the episode
#806: How Rich Barton Built Expedia and Zillow from $0 to $35B — Audacious Goals, Provocation Marketing, Scrabble for Naming, and Powerful Daily Rituals
Rich Barton