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Strategy

Goal Metrics with Counter-Metrics

Pair every goal metric with a counter-metric that catches its negative side effects

Difficulty
Moderate
Time to result
~months to results
Steps
4
Confidence
80%

Borrowing from Andy Grove's paired metrics, Zuckerberg encodes into every team a goal metric alongside a counter-metric. The goal metric captures the good outcome, such as more connection, while the counter-metric watches for the associated harm so it does not increase past acceptable limits. He gives the example of virtual reality, where the goal is immersive presence but motion sickness is a tracked counter-metric that engineers work to keep below thresholds as frame rates improve. The stance behind it is humility: it is tough to understand all the effects of anything up front, so you stay open to the possibility that what you build has issues and instrument for them, rather than assuming the goal metric alone tells the whole story.

Origin

Zuckerberg adopted Andy Grove's paired-metrics idea and encoded goal-plus-counter-metrics into teams across the company.

Core principles

  • 01Any metric you push on will generate unintended negative effects
  • 02Pair each goal metric with a counter-metric that watches the downside
  • 03Optimise the goal while keeping the counter-metric from exceeding limits
  • 04Be open that what you build could have issues, and track for them

How to run it

  1. 1

    Define the goal metric

    State clearly the positive outcome you are trying to increase.

  2. 2

    Anticipate the downside

    Identify the plausible negative side effects of pushing that goal metric.

  3. 3

    Instrument a counter-metric

    Choose a metric that tracks each downside so it can be watched over time.

    Pro tip For VR presence, motion sickness is the counter-metric.

  4. 4

    Set and enforce limits

    Define thresholds the counter-metric must not exceed and review both metrics together.

    Watch out Stay open to the idea that your product has issues, and improve them rather than ignoring the counter-metric.

In the wild

Presence versus motion sickness

For VR, the goal metric is immersive presence, but the biggest reported downside is motion sickness caused by rendering lag. Zuckerberg's teams track sickness as a counter-metric and push frame rates and efficiency to keep it below the threshold where it becomes uncomfortable.

Each hardware generation improves presence while keeping the tracked discomfort counter-metric in check.

Common mistakes

Optimising a lone metric

Pushing a single goal metric with nothing watching the downside lets harmful side effects grow unseen.

Assuming you know all the effects up front

Believing you understand every consequence in advance stops you instrumenting for the problems you did not foresee.

Is it for you?

Best for

Product and strategy teams driving a metric where unchecked side effects could cause real harm.

Not ideal for

Trivial goals with no meaningful downside worth instrumenting.

From the transcript

there there kind of counter metrics in all of these areas that we're that we're tracking to make sure that we don't exceed or don't…

Mark Zuckerberg · 29:00

From the episode

#582: Mark Zuckerberg on Long-Term Strategy, Business and Parenting Principles, Personal Energy Management, Building the Metaverse, Seeking Awe, the Role of Religion, Solving Deep Technical Challenges (e.g., AR), and More