The No-Hedge Reader Trust Rule
Verify assertions and label uncertain stories without evasive wording
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~days to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 96%
Andrew Roberts treats words such as “perhaps,” “maybe,” “possibly,” and “probably” as warning lights in factual nonfiction. In his view, they often tell the reader that the writer has not worked hard enough to establish what happened. The rule is not to pretend certainty. Instead, research the claim until it can be stated clearly, or explicitly frame an unverified but illuminating account as a story or anecdote. That distinction lets the reader understand the evidence status without forcing the writer to discard every revealing tale. The mechanism is editorial: detect hidden uncertainty, resolve it where possible, and label it honestly where it remains. The intended output is a stronger bond of trust between writer and reader.
Origin
Roberts explains the rule while discussing words he avoids when writing history. Extracted from The Tim Ferriss Show.
Core principles
- 01Treat habitual hedging as a signal of incomplete research
- 02Earn confidence before making a factual assertion
- 03Label an anecdote openly when it cannot be established
- 04Protect the bond of trust with the reader
How to run it
- 1
Find the hedge words
Review the draft for terms such as perhaps, maybe, possibly, and probably.
Pro tip Treat each occurrence as a research prompt rather than a harmless style choice.
Watch out Deleting a hedge without checking the claim can turn uncertainty into false certainty.
- 2
Identify the evidence gap
Ask what fact, source, or reasoning the hedge is covering.
Pro tip Write the unresolved question in plain language before doing more research.
Watch out Do not mistake confident phrasing for adequate evidence.
- 3
Resolve what can be resolved
Research the assertion until the evidence supports a direct statement or shows that it should be removed.
Pro tip Prefer a narrower established claim over a broader uncertain one.
Watch out A reader paying for authoritative nonfiction expects the writer to have done this work.
- 4
Label useful uncertainty
If an uncertain story genuinely illuminates character or context, identify it openly as something said, told, or stated anecdotally.
Pro tip Use the label to disclose evidence status, not to smuggle in a claim.
Watch out Do not present an anecdote as established fact.
- 5
Read for trust
Review the passage from the reader's perspective and confirm that certainty and uncertainty are clearly distinguished.
Pro tip Ask whether the wording strengthens or breaks the bond of trust.
In the wild
Roberts says a funny or personality-revealing story can remain even when its truth is uncertain, provided the prose signals that status with language such as “it is said that” or “the story is told that.”
→ The reader receives the useful anecdote without being misled about its evidentiary status.
Common mistakes
Hedging instead of researching
A vague qualifier can conceal that the writer has not established the underlying claim.
Presenting anecdote as fact
A compelling story still needs an honest signal when its truth cannot be established.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for writers making factual claims whose readers expect researched authority.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for forecasts or explicitly speculative work where uncertainty itself is the subject.
From the transcript
“don't use them they're cheat words”
“what they're saying to the reader is I haven't worked hard enough on this I don't know”
“it breaks the bond of trust that you need to have with your reader”
From the episode
#773: Andrew Roberts on The Habits of Churchill, Lessons from Napoleon, and The Holy Fire Inside Great Leaders
Andrew Roberts