The Two Performance Thresholds
Take creative risks above a firm audience-value floor while aiming beyond excellence
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 97%
Imagine performance quality as one axis with two important lines. The upper line represents an experience so strong that audience members might call it one of the best things they have ever seen; aim toward or even beyond that point to pull the work upward. The lower line represents the minimum ethical floor: nobody should feel that attending cost them time or money for no value. Creative risk is acceptable within the space between those thresholds, but not below the lower line. The floor is contextual, so a world championship demands a higher minimum than a low-stakes workshop. Once preparation makes success above the relevant floor extremely likely, stop tinkering, recover, and perform.
Origin
Simon described this as a deliberately simplified but useful model for deciding how much experimentation he permits in a performance.
Core principles
- 01Aim beyond the level you realistically expect to reach
- 02Protect the audience from regretting its investment
- 03Experiment inside a defined quality range
- 04Raise the minimum floor when the stakes rise
- 05Accept uncertainty only after preparation clears the floor
How to run it
- 1
Draw the quality axis
Reduce the relevant experience to a rough scale from terrible to extraordinary. Accept that the model is simplified but useful for the decision.
Watch out Do not mistake a subjective model for an objective measurement.
- 2
Set the aspiration line
Name the experience you would create if the work reached its highest imaginable form. Aim beyond the expected point of impact.
Pro tip Use the upper line as direction, not as a condition for self-worth.
- 3
Set the audience floor
Define the lowest acceptable result as one where the audience does not regret its time or money.
Watch out Raise this floor when the event carries greater expectations.
- 4
Evaluate the experiment
Ask whether a proposed risk could push the result below the audience floor. Keep only experiments whose likely downside remains above it.
Pro tip Use rehearsal and prior trials to estimate the downside rather than relying on excitement.
- 5
Stop at reliable readiness
When you are confident the performance will clear the relevant floor and work at a high level, stop changing it and prioritize sleep and recovery.
Watch out Last-minute novelty is not automatically worth the risk.
In the wild
Before FISM, Simon treated the minimum acceptable line as higher than it would be for ordinary experimentation. He worked until he was confident the act was extremely likely to succeed at a high level, then relaxed and tried to sleep.
→ The model let him retain creative risk without treating the championship audience as a casual test group.
A speaker considers adding an unrehearsed interactive ending. The possible upside is memorable, but a failure could leave paying attendees confused and erase the talk's value. The speaker keeps the tested ending for the keynote and reserves the experiment for a smaller workshop.
→ The audience-value floor determines where the risk belongs.
Common mistakes
Using perfection as the floor
The lower threshold protects audience value; it is not a demand that every performance reach the aspirational line.
Keeping one floor everywhere
A low-stakes test and a world championship require different minimum levels of reliability.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for creators choosing whether a risky new element is ready for a real audience.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for safety-critical work where subjective quality thresholds cannot manage the downside.
From the transcript
“the two that I think about the most is somewhere very high up is people in the audience are thinking that is one of the…”
“way lower is the line above which not one person the audience felt like they wasted their time or their money I'm willing to take…”
“the world damn championships so the minimum Line's a bit higher”
From the episode
#679: Simon Coronel, World Champion of Magic — Quitting the Day Job, The Delights of the Magic Castle, Finding Glitches in Reality, Learning How to Use Your Own Brain, and Worshiping at the Altar of Wonder
Simon Coronel