Weighted Concurrent Beliefs
Hold competing explanations and update their weights with evidence
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 98%
Boeree credits poker with teaching her to remain comfortable holding several possible belief states at once. Rather than declaring one explanation certain, she gives each a different probability and updates those weights as evidence arrives. She applies this to unusual personal experiences: instead of abandoning the scientific method or dismissing the events, she raises the probability she assigns to unconventional explanations while still considering conventional ones more likely. The method protects against two symmetrical failures—gullibility and rigid cynicism. Evidence changes the distribution of belief rather than demanding an all-or-nothing conversion. Extraordinary claims still require substantially more evidence before they overturn a broad body of established understanding.
Origin
Boeree applies poker's probabilistic thinking to her unexplained premonition and apparent energy-healing experience.
Core principles
- 01Avoid absolute certainty when several explanations remain possible
- 02Assign different weights to concurrent beliefs
- 03Update beliefs when personal or external evidence arrives
- 04Demand more evidence for larger departures from established knowledge
- 05Preserve curiosity and skepticism at the same time
How to run it
- 1
List live explanations
State the conventional, unconventional, and error-based explanations that could account for the evidence.
Pro tip Include explanations that would be uncomfortable if true.
Watch out A binary true-or-false frame may hide the real uncertainty.
- 2
Set provisional weights
Assign rough probabilities that reflect prior knowledge and current evidence.
Pro tip Use ranges when precise numbers would imply false confidence.
Watch out A literal zero prevents evidence from changing your mind.
- 3
Assess the data point
Examine how reliable, repeatable, and discriminating the new evidence is among the explanations.
Pro tip Separate the fact that something happened from the story about why it happened.
Watch out A vivid personal experience can receive more weight than its reliability warrants.
- 4
Update proportionally
Move probability toward explanations favored by the evidence without changing unrelated beliefs.
Pro tip Record the before and after weights to expose exaggerated updates.
Watch out One surprising event need not trigger a wholesale worldview change.
- 5
Define the next evidence
Specify what observation, replication, or test would materially change the weights again.
Pro tip Prefer evidence that competing explanations predict differently.
Watch out Do not claim scientific validation from an experience that has not been tested.
In the wild
Boeree says she once gave energy healing roughly a one-in-a-million probability. After her ear symptoms disappeared following an unusual encounter, she raised it to at least one in 100 while still judging a conventional explanation more probable.
→ The experience changed her probability estimate without causing her to abandon scientific practice.
Common mistakes
Updating from zero
Assigning an absolute zero makes a belief impossible to revise regardless of later evidence.
Replacing one certainty with another
A strange experience can justify a probability shift without proving its most unconventional explanation.
Is it for you?
Best for
Uncertain questions where evidence is incomplete, explanations compete, and new information may arrive.
Not ideal for
Immediate operational decisions that require a firm action despite unresolved uncertainty.
From the transcript
“So you become very comfortable in terms of like living like holding concurrent belief states in your mind with different weighted probabilities of those things…”
“And now I have updated it you know with this evidence to how many orders of magnitude do I want to go?”
“But it's still important to keep the like skeptical hat on.”
From the episode
#611: Liv Boeree, Poker and Life — Core Strategies, Turning $500 into $1.7M, Cage Dancing, Game Theory, and Metaphysical Curiosities
Liv Boeree