Wild Problem Decision Lens
Choose identity and purpose when costs and benefits cannot define the answer
- Difficulty
- Advanced
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 99%
The Wild Problem Decision Lens begins by identifying choices that cannot be solved by comparing predicted pleasure, costs, or measurable outcomes. Marriage, children, a major job, and a move can change the person making the decision, so the pre-decision self lacks the experience needed to score the future accurately. Practical consequences still matter, but they become constraints rather than a complete equation. The decision-maker then examines identity, meaning, purpose, and the kind of journey each path creates. Intuition can provide information, but Roberts rejects the simple instruction to follow the gut just as he rejects calculation alone. The result is not an algorithm that supplies the right answer; it is an organized way to choose thoughtfully when no objective best option is well defined.
Origin
Roberts developed the lens in Wild Problems after a friend used an inconclusive cost-benefit list to decide whether to have a child.
Core principles
- 01Transformative choices cannot be understood fully before they are lived
- 02Fun and day-to-day benefits do not capture meaning and purpose
- 03The best option may be undefined when alternatives have many incomparable attributes
- 04Neither calculation alone nor unexamined intuition is sufficient
How to run it
- 1
Classify the choice
Ask whether taking either path would transform your identity, preferences, or understanding. If you cannot know the experience without living it, treat it as a wild problem.
Pro tip Look for choices that alter who will evaluate the outcome later.
Watch out Do not turn every ordinary purchase into an existential decision.
- 2
Bound the knowable
Gather practical facts, then state what those facts cannot reveal about the lived experience. Keep costs and risks visible without pretending they produce a complete score.
Pro tip Use facts to rule out infeasible paths rather than crown an unknowable best path.
Watch out A long list can create the appearance of knowledge without supplying the missing experience.
- 3
Examine identity
Describe who you may become through each choice and what role the choice would play in your life story. Include responsibilities and relationships, not just personal enjoyment.
Pro tip Use the question of how you would see yourself, not only how you would feel each day.
Watch out Do not confuse a socially admired identity with one you are willing to live.
- 4
Name purpose
Ask what meaning, service, calling, or overarching purpose each path could embody. Discuss the answer with people whose lives are materially joined to the decision.
Pro tip For a shared life choice, make the unit of decision genuinely plural.
Watch out Purpose language should not erase concrete harm or a partner's preferences.
- 5
Integrate without scoring
Consider evidence, emotion, intuition, identity, and purpose together without forcing unlike attributes into one number. Choose a path whose risks and journey you can accept.
Pro tip Treat a gut reaction as a clue to examine, not a command.
Watch out Neither a spreadsheet nor a feeling removes responsibility for the choice.
In the wild
Roberts's friend and his wife listed the costs and benefits of having a child but still could not decide. Roberts argues that comparing fun, diapers, errands, and daily burdens misses the identity, meaning, and purpose that parenthood can create.
→ The couple can organize the choice around the life and identity they may undertake rather than demand a decisive numerical total.
Roberts and his wife considered distance, friends, work, and transition, but focused on the college's educational mission and whether the opportunity was what they were meant or called to do. He says they both felt taking it was part of why they were there.
→ They sold their house and moved to Jerusalem for a demanding but meaningful shared adventure.
Common mistakes
Optimizing only for fun
Day-to-day pleasure does not capture the meaning, purpose, and identity created by a major commitment.
Searching for one best score
Incomparable attributes cannot always be combined into a well-defined number that identifies the best option.
Replacing analysis with instinct
Roberts explicitly rejects the false choice between scientific calculation and simply following the gut.
Is it for you?
Best for
Decisions about marriage, children, vocation, education, relocation, and other choices that change who the decision-maker becomes.
Not ideal for
Routine choices with stable preferences, comparable outcomes, and sufficient evidence for a conventional cost-benefit analysis.
From the transcript
“there are overarching senses of who we are and and how we see ourselves and the meaning and purpose we have in life that are…”
“it's really gonna help you think about how to make a decision not what the right decision is”
“the alternatives aren't use science or just follow your gut i don't think either one is the right way to think about these kind of…”
From the episode
#613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence
Russ Roberts