The Zero Effect
Search broadly enough to discover valuable outcomes you did not predict
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 93%
The Zero Effect is Holman’s philosophy for staying open while searching. Borrowing from the film of the same name, it contrasts looking for one specific lost object with looking for something useful in general: a narrow target can make every other discovery invisible. Applied to venture investing, the method begins with a broad area of interest, delays dismissal of proposals that sound crazy, and lets founders explain the mechanism. Openness does not require blind belief. Promising surprises still need bounded tests and evidence before investment. The method changes the order of judgment: first understand what might be real, then evaluate whether it is practical. Its purpose is to preserve access to discoveries that could not have been specified in advance, especially in fields where genuinely new technologies initially sound implausible.
Origin
Holman took the name and core analogy from the 1998 film The Zero Effect and applies it as a philosophy for evaluating wild deep-tech ideas.
Core principles
- 01A narrow target hides useful discoveries outside it
- 02Open attention increases the chance of finding something valuable
- 03Crazy-sounding ideas deserve understanding before rejection
- 04Participation produces more information than spectatorship
How to run it
- 1
Choose a territory, not one answer
Define the broad domain in which a useful discovery would matter. Avoid specifying the exact object or solution before exploration begins.
Pro tip Frame the search around a problem class rather than a favored technology.
- 2
Suspend the first verdict
When an idea sounds crazy, delay rejection long enough to hear its mechanism. Let the proposer explain why the idea may be less implausible than it sounds.
Pro tip Ask what evidence changed the proposer’s own mind.
Watch out Suspending disbelief is not the same as suspending due diligence.
- 3
Look for the real possibility
Identify the specific claim, observation, or laboratory result that could make the idea valuable. Separate it from the proposal’s most extravagant framing.
Pro tip Search for a small testable core inside the large claim.
- 4
Run a bounded test
Use a limited experiment or investment to learn whether the possibility survives contact with evidence. Cap the downside before beginning.
Pro tip Design the test so failure produces information rather than only loss.
Watch out Do not scale exposure merely because the upside is exciting.
- 5
Keep the unexpected result
Accept valuable findings even when they differ from the original search. Update the opportunity map instead of forcing the result back into the initial target.
Pro tip Record what the search found as well as whether it found the intended object.
In the wild
Holman says even he initially dislikes many proposals made to his venture fund. He forces himself to remain open while founders explain why an idea that sounds crazy may not be crazy in mechanism.
→ Ideas receive an understanding-first evaluation before the fund decides whether to invest.
Holman invested in a fringe nano-confinement fusion approach after laboratory work indicated that the mechanism could produce fusion. He treats the check as capped downside against an extraordinary but uncertain upside.
→ The fund participates in a high-upside experiment without pretending the commercialization risk is settled.
Common mistakes
Demanding certainty too early
Premature certainty excludes discoveries that could not have been predicted before exploration.
Confusing openness with credulity
The method preserves ideas for examination; it does not waive evidence or downside limits.
Searching for only one object
An overly specific target makes unrelated but valuable findings look like failures.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for investors, researchers, and builders searching uncertain opportunity spaces.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal when a safety-critical task requires a precise target and strict operating procedure.
From the transcript
“If you go looking for something in general and you don't set such a specific target, you're bound to find something.”
“I have to force myself to stay open.”
“I think the zero effect is how I think about staying open to finding anything.”
From the episode
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Pablos Holman