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02 August 2022

#612: Will MacAskill of Effective Altruism Fame — The Value of Longtermism, Tools for Beating Stress and Overwhelm, AI Scenarios, High-Impact Books, and How to Save the World and Be an Agent of Change

5Frameworks
12Insights

Frameworks in this episode

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Hot Take· 3

Hot Take45:00

Posterity Has Already Given Us Something: Meaning

Drawing on John Stuart Mill and Children of Men, MacAskill argues that future generations already matter to present people because many projects derive meaning from being continued. Scientific inquiry resembles adding to a cathedral of knowledge inherited from ancestors and passed onward rather than creating work destined for immediate destruction.

  • A future without new generations could rob present projects of meaning
  • Knowledge is an inherited, unfinished intergenerational project
  • People can find purpose in contributing to something much larger than themselves
  • Long-term concern can therefore connect to present self-interest without reducing to it

posterity has done a lot of things for us because the projects we have only have meaning in so far as we think that they…

Will MacAskill · 45:30

there is this semi built Cathedral of knowledge that has I inherited from all of my ancestors that has then been passed to us and…

Will MacAskill · 46:00
#posterity#meaning#science#future generations
Hot Take1:04:30

Automated Armies Could Lower the Cost of War for Dictators

MacAskill warns that automation could remove two restraints on leaders: casualties among their own population and dependence on the loyalty of human soldiers. An entirely automated army could therefore make both internal control and external aggression easier for a dictator.

  • Human casualties impose political and social costs on war
  • Reliance on soldiers creates a check because armies can withdraw support
  • Coded loyalty could strengthen dictators against military coups
  • Lower domestic costs could make decisions to wage war less constrained

imagine if there's a world where the Army is entirely automated well dictators can be much more reassured because their their army can be entirely…

Will MacAskill · 1:04:30

the costs of going to war much lower as well because you're no longer sustaining casualties on your own side

Will MacAskill · 1:05:00
#warfare#automation#dictatorship#military
Hot Take1:23:30

Why MacAskill Sees Boxed AI Oracles as a Plausible Safer Path

MacAskill is relatively optimistic that powerful AI need not kill everyone because systems could be air-gapped, restricted to text output, and used as question-answering oracles. Multiple isolated systems could help humans solve safety problems before more powerful agentic systems are built, though critics worry that a sufficiently capable oracle could deceive its operators.

  • Air-gapped machines would lack direct internet access
  • Oracle systems would answer questions rather than act broadly in the world
  • Multiple systems could be isolated without knowing the others exist
  • MacAskill considers long-term deception through text possible but speculative

you could have like air gapped computers so you can't access the internet

Will MacAskill · 1:24:30

that's a pathway where it's like you're using AI to help solve the problems that we will face with even more powerful Ai

Will MacAskill · 1:25:00
#ai safety#containment#oracles#air gap

Explainer· 5

Explainer02:30

Cumulative Culture, Not Bigger Brains, Is Humanity's Superpower

MacAskill recommends Joseph Henrich's books for their account of humans as cultural rather than merely self-interested beings. The central mechanism is cumulative cultural evolution: knowledge passes between people and generations, allowing many minds to function in concert.

  • Human brains alone do not explain the gap between human and chimpanzee capability
  • Knowledge can be inherited culturally even when the learner does not understand its original reason
  • Cooperation across generations scales intelligence far beyond one brain
  • WEIRD psychology is unusually individualistic and unrepresentative of most cultures

the distinctive thing is that we work together essentially we're capable of cumulative cultural Evolution

Will MacAskill · 04:00

it's tens of thousands of brains all working in concert and now millions of brains over many generations

Will MacAskill · 04:30
#culture#anthropology#cooperation#books
Explainer18:30

What Effective Altruism Means and What It Has Achieved

MacAskill defines effective altruism as both a philosophy and a community focused on doing as much good as possible with available time and money. He describes applications across donations, careers, voting, consumption, global health, animal welfare, AI safety, and pandemic preparedness.

  • The objective is to maximize good rather than merely feel good
  • The philosophy applies to money, careers, votes, consumption, and whole lives
  • MacAskill says the movement had moved well over a billion dollars to effective causes
  • He cites malaria protection, cage-free campaigns, AI safety, and pandemic preparedness

effect of altruism is a philosophy and a community that's about trying to figure out how can we do as much good as possible with…

Will MacAskill · 19:00

We've protected over 400 million people mainly children from malaria and statistically that means we've saved about 100,000 lives or maybe a little more

Will MacAskill · 20:00
#effective altruism#philanthropy#impact#charity
Explainer51:00

How Value Lock-In Can Freeze a Bad Ideology for Generations

Value lock-in occurs when one ideology gains control, eliminates competitors, and persists for an extremely long time. MacAskill uses ancient China, Cambodia, European religious conflict, and modern totalitarian ideologies to show why reduced ideological competition can obstruct moral change.

  • Ancient China's Hundred Schools of Thought represented substantial ideological diversity
  • The Han Dynasty established Confucianism as an enduring state ideology
  • Ruling ideologies repeatedly suppress competing views once they obtain power
  • Global dominance could make an incorrect value system unusually persistent

value lockin is when a single ideology or value system or kind of set of ideologies kind of takes control of an area or in…

Will MacAskill · 51:00

one reason why we've gotten moral change and moral progress over time which is in virtue of having a diversity of moral views that are…

Will MacAskill · 54:30
#value lock-in#ideology#history#moral progress
Explainer57:00

How AI Could Compress Centuries of Discovery Into Years

MacAskill argues that AI could sharply increase the number and quality of researchers rather than merely automate existing work. If AI engineers and scientists improve AI systems that then improve subsequent generations, standard economic models can imply dramatically faster technological progress.

  • MacAskill says the largest contemporary AI systems used roughly honeybee-brain-scale computing power
  • He treats human-brain-scale compute as a potentially crucial threshold, not a confident prediction
  • AI could increase both the supply and capability of research labor
  • Rapid discovery could create abundance or accelerate dangerous technologies

we could rapidly increase the amount of R&D that's happening and what's more perhaps they'd be much much better at doing research than we are

Will MacAskill · 1:01:00

you might get many centuries worth of technological progress happening over the course of a few years or a decade

Will MacAskill · 1:01:30
#artificial intelligence#r&d#economic growth#technology
Explainer1:15:00

The Two AI Scenarios MacAskill Finds Most Worrying

The first scenario is a system more powerful than humans pursuing goals misaligned with human goals and taking control when people obstruct it. The second requires no machine rebellion: aligned AI could still concentrate extraordinary power in a state, company, or individual and enable indefinite totalitarian control.

  • Misaligned systems could leave humans with as little control as chimpanzees have over humanity
  • Recursive AI-assisted development could make changes happen very quickly
  • Even obedient AI can empower the human controller of the system
  • Replicable software could preserve a dictator's ideology beyond a human lifespan

AI systems get just much more powerful than human systems and they have goals that are misaligned with human goals and they realize that human…

Will MacAskill · 1:16:00

even assume that we do manage to align a systems with human goals so we can really get them to do whatever they want nonetheless…

Will MacAskill · 1:17:00
#ai risk#alignment#totalitarianism#power concentration

Story· 2

Story08:00

How Crime and Punishment Led MacAskill to an Authentic Life

Reading Dostoevsky at about 15 led MacAskill from literature toward philosophy and existentialism. He still tests major choices by asking whether he could justify his life to his 15-year-old self, linking moral action with autonomy and authenticity.

  • Dostoevsky introduced him to philosophy as a direct way to tackle big ideas
  • Existentialism emphasizes creating meaning through authentic acts
  • He uses his younger self as a test for whether his present life is authentic
  • Giving away most of his income feels empowering because it is an autonomous choice

I often think to myself could I justify my life now to my 15-year-old self

Will MacAskill · 09:00

you can create your own meaning out of that through like radically free acts like authentic genuine acts

Will MacAskill · 11:00
#existentialism#authenticity#dostoevsky#philosophy
Story28:00

The Self-Experimented Routine That Nearly Fixed MacAskill's Back Pain

After prolonged sitting and conventional advice failed to engage with his specific problem, MacAskill developed a compact routine with input from physiotherapists. He combined squats, curls, presses, deadlifts, rows, core work, and a self-invented stretch to address posture, hip flexors, glutes, and anterior pelvic tilt.

  • He sought a more time-efficient routine than long generic recommendations
  • The routine combines several movements while balancing on a Bosu ball
  • Planks and posterior-chain work addressed posture distorted by years of beach-muscle training
  • He explicitly says he is not a professional workout coach

self- experimentation I think was just better

Will MacAskill · 29:00

combining also with core work so plank in particular MH really just I think sorted things out

Will MacAskill · 31:00
#back pain#exercise#self-experimentation#posture

Tool· 1

Tool1:31:30

MacAskill's Sources for a Rigorous Big-Picture Information Diet

For listeners who want less manufactured urgency and more durable understanding, MacAskill recommends podcasts and websites centered on history, philosophy, science, data, and carefully researched global problems. He singles out Our World in Data as his best single source for orienting to large-scale trends.

  • Recommended podcasts include In Our Time, 80,000 Hours, Hear This Idea, and Rationally Speaking
  • Our World in Data combines data with rigorous interpretation
  • Its coverage includes nuclear war, long-run economic growth, and population
  • MacAskill used it heavily while orienting himself for the book

I don't know of a single better Source than our world in data

Will MacAskill · 1:32:30

it's articles that are presenting both data and like the best understanding of the data in just this like Timeless Evergreen Way with exceptional rigor…

Will MacAskill · 1:33:00
#information diet#podcasts#data#research

Takeaway· 1

Takeaway13:00

Why Actionability and Low Standards Make Huge Problems Bearable

MacAskill's optimism comes from focusing first on the difference a person can make rather than how frightening a problem is. His second move is to use a neutral baseline: if his existence makes the world even somewhat better, additional good is a bonus rather than a demand for perfection.

  • The size of a problem matters for action only alongside what can be done about it
  • Focusing on tractable impact turns attention from fear toward agency
  • A neutral baseline reduces pressure to solve everything
  • MacAskill sees the possibility of civilization-scale impact as inspiring

something could be the worst problem in the world but if there's nothing you can do then it's just not relevant for the purpose of…

Will MacAskill · 15:30

if I can make it a bit better in virtue of my existence hey that's pretty good

Will MacAskill · 17:00
#optimism#agency#overwhelm#impact