Longtermism
Use humanity's possible future to identify and improve today's pivotal choices
- Difficulty
- Advanced
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 3
- Confidence
- 99%
Longtermism starts by widening the time horizon from the present generation to humanity's entire possible future. First, consider how much life, flourishing, knowledge, and accomplishment may still lie ahead if civilization survives. Second, identify events in the present century that could alter that future persistently, such as extinction, unrecoverable civilizational collapse, value lock-in, transformative AI, catastrophic pandemics, or major war. Third, search for actions that improve the odds of a flourishing trajectory. The mechanism is prioritization by scale and persistence: a present action matters more when it affects more future lives, changes outcomes for longer, and can actually be influenced. The framework is action-oriented rather than an invitation to dwell on frightening scenarios.
Origin
Will MacAskill presented longtermism as the central idea behind his book What We Owe the Future on The Tim Ferriss Show.
Core principles
- 01Future people matter
- 02Humanity's remaining future could dwarf its past
- 03A few present-day events may shape civilization for an extremely long time
- 04Actions should improve humanity's trajectory, not merely describe its risks
How to run it
- 1
Take the future's scale seriously
Consider how long humanity could survive and how much of what you value could exist in that future. Do not assume the present generation represents most of the human story.
Pro tip Use multiple time horizons rather than relying on one confident forecast.
Watch out Do not treat humanity's long survival as guaranteed.
- 2
Find pivotal events
Look for events within current lifetimes that could shape civilization far beyond the present generation. Prioritize consequences that are large, persistent, and difficult to reverse.
Pro tip Include positive technological transitions as well as catastrophic risks.
Watch out Manufactured urgency can distract from events with greater long-run importance.
- 3
Choose a better trajectory
Determine which available actions could reduce major threats or improve the values and institutions carried into the future. Translate the analysis into career, donation, research, or policy choices.
Pro tip Focus on the difference you can make rather than only the magnitude of the problem.
Watch out A terrifying problem is not automatically actionable or the best use of resources.
In the wild
A funder compares several health projects and recognizes that far-UVC research, broad pathogen detection, and better protective equipment may protect both present populations and civilization's ability to survive future engineered pandemics. The funder supports research that could become durable disease-safety infrastructure.
→ Present spending may reduce recurring respiratory disease while also lowering a civilization-scale risk.
A technically capable graduate compares a conventional career with work on AI interpretability and alignment. Because advanced AI may accelerate technological change and shape institutions for a very long time, the graduate investigates whether their skills can improve how that transition is handled.
→ The career choice is evaluated by its plausible effect on humanity's trajectory, not only salary or prestige.
Common mistakes
Treating longtermism as doom scrolling
Cataloguing frightening possibilities without identifying tractable actions misses the framework's purpose. The analysis should end in a choice that can improve the future.
Assuming one confident forecast
The future is deeply uncertain. Use the possibility and scale of persistent outcomes to guide attention without pretending to predict exactly how events will unfold.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for career, funding, research, and policy decisions with potentially civilization-scale consequences.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for routine choices whose effects are local, short-lived, and readily reversible.
From the transcript
“long-termism is about three things it's about taking seriously the sheer scale of the future that might be ahead of us and just how high…”
“it's then about trying to assess what are the events that might occur in our lifetimes that really would have impact not just for the…”
“and then third trying to figure out like okay how do we ensure that we can take actions to put Humanity onto the right path”
From the episode
#612: Will MacAskill of Effective Altruism Fame — The Value of Longtermism, Tools for Beating Stress and Overwhelm, AI Scenarios, High-Impact Books, and How to Save the World and Be an Agent of Change