Quarterly Assumption Challenge
Surface every assumption, invert each one, and investigate what changes
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~days to results
- Steps
- 4
- Confidence
- 99%
Once a quarter, list every assumption surrounding the work, first independently and then together on a shared board or document. Take each assumption in turn and ask what would happen if it were untrue or if you did the opposite. Most inversions may lead nowhere, but the process makes the team's operating beliefs visible and creates permission to inspect alternatives. Justin says the exercise reliably reveals a core assumption that changes the work. The method produced the physical version of SolForge after the team challenged its foundational identity as a digital game.
Origin
Justin describes this as a more recent company process and illustrates it with the shift from digital SolForge to physical SolForge Fusion.
Core principles
- 01Hidden assumptions quietly constrain the option set
- 02Making assumptions explicit is valuable before any inversion
- 03Testing the opposite can expose a new direction
- 04Most inversions may fail while one changes everything
How to run it
- 1
List assumptions alone
Have each participant write down every assumption they can identify before group discussion begins.
Pro tip Include assumptions about format, customers, technology, and category.
Watch out Do not limit the list to assumptions already considered doubtful.
- 2
Create a shared map
Put all assumptions on one shared board or document so the full operating model is visible.
- 3
Invert each assumption
Ask, one by one, what if the assumption were not true or what if you did the opposite.
Pro tip Take even apparently obvious assumptions seriously for a moment.
- 4
Follow the productive break
Move quickly past inversions that reveal nothing and investigate the one that changes the opportunity.
Pro tip Research enabling changes in technology or circumstances.
Watch out Do not force every inversion into an initiative.
In the wild
The team began with the assumption that SolForge was a digital game. Asking what it would look like if it were not led them to investigate improved digital printing that could algorithmically create one-of-a-kind physical cards.
→ The inquiry led to the physical card game SolForge Fusion.
Common mistakes
Keeping assumptions implicit
An assumption cannot be challenged clearly until the team has made it explicit.
Expecting every inversion to work
Justin notes that some opposites make no sense; the value is finding the occasional one that changes everything.
Is it for you?
Best for
Individuals or teams reviewing a product, category, or operating model they may be taking for granted.
Not ideal for
Routine execution where the governing assumptions have already been recently tested.
From the transcript
“And what that means is you surface every assumption you can.”
“And then you, one by one, "Okay, what if that weren't true?"”
“But without fail, by the time we finish that exercise, we find some core assumption that all of a sudden changes everything.”
From the episode
#687: Justin Gary — Taking the Path Less Traveled, The Phenomenon of “Magic: The Gathering,” How Analytical People Can Become “Creative” People, Finding the Third Right Answer, and How to Escape Your Need for Control
Justin Gary