Wave or Widen: The Trajectory Decision
Decide whether to keep riding a fading movement or widen the envelope of who you are
- Difficulty
- Advanced
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 7
- Confidence
- 80%
Rubin treats this as a case-by-case judgement over the whole arc of a body of work, not a rule. The trigger he identifies is structural: if you are riding the wave of a movement and the movement goes away, look closely at whether you want to keep riding that wave. The projection is that one or two more of the same would still be wildly successful, and then it would sound like the oldies station. The counterweight is the audience relationship: for the Chili Peppers, the audience did not love them because of the funk-and-rap format, they loved them because the band put all of themselves into it, which created room to widen the envelope rather than switch. He is emphatic that the opposite advice is sometimes correct, and that the deciding inputs are how the artist sees themselves and their long-term goals.
Origin
Extracted from The Tim Ferriss Show
Core principles
- 01There is no universally right answer, only the right trajectory for you
- 02A movement's decline is a decision trigger, not a verdict
- 03Continuity is a valid strategy when the audience wants exactly that
- 04Audiences who love the people, not the format, give you room to widen
- 05Riding a wave you are not connected to rarely even succeeds
How to run it
- 1
Identify what you were riding
Separate success that came from a movement or trend from success that came from your own identity and musicianship.
- 2
Check whether the wave is receding
Assess honestly whether the category itself is disappearing, as rap rock was when Linkin Park came to Rubin.
Pro tip Being the most successful act in a dying movement is the classic version of this position.
Watch out Current sales lag the movement's decline; do not read a strong last album as a healthy category.
- 3
Run the retro test
Project what happens if you make one or two more of the same: probably wildly successful, then sounding like the oldies station rather than the cutting edge you once were.
- 4
Diagnose the audience bond
Work out whether the audience loves the format or loves you. If they love you because you put all of yourself into the work, the envelope can be widened without losing them.
Pro tip Look at what the audience says about the band, not about the records.
- 5
Weigh self-image and long-term goals
Rubin says so much of it comes down to how the artist sees themselves and what their long-term goals are. Linkin Park's aspirations were bigger than being another rap rock group.
Watch out An external strategist cannot supply this input; it has to come from the artist.
- 6
Choose the trajectory, including staying put
Pick between widening the envelope, holding the line, or deliberately returning to what you used to do that worked. Rubin has advised all three.
Pro tip AC/DC and the Ramones are the proof that never changing is a legitimate great career.
- 7
Test for intrinsic resonance
Confirm the chosen direction actually connects with what you deeply want to do, since sustaining anything else long-term is close to impossible.
Watch out If you are riding a wave while disconnected from yourself, Rubin doubts it will even be successful.
In the wild
Linkin Park came to Rubin having made three of the biggest rap rock albums ever, asking what to do next, at a moment when rap rock as a genre was disappearing. Rubin's read was that another album like their last would have been wildly successful, and maybe one more, but then it would have sounded like the oldies station, retro rather than the cutting edge it originally was. Their aspirations were bigger than being another rap rock group, so shifting out and trying different things was the right move.
→ The band widened its envelope instead of maximising the last of a dying movement.
The Chili Peppers had made funk records with rap vocals for around four albums and could have carried on fine. Spending time with them, Rubin saw musicianship and potential, and saw that the audience loved them not for the format but because they put all of themselves into it, so there was room to widen the envelope. AC/DC is the mirror case: they never wanted to sound any different, for them that is simply what music sounds like, and there was no chance of them starting to do piano ballads.
→ Two opposite trajectories, both correct for the act in question.
Common mistakes
Treating reinvention as the default virtue
Rubin is explicit that there is no right or wrong here, and that the Ramones doing the Ramones every time is as valid as the Beatles changing radically across seven years.
Ignoring the intrinsic resonance test
A direction chosen purely on market logic, with no connection to what you actually want to make, is very hard to sustain and may not even succeed.
Waiting for the sales to fall
The decision point is when the movement starts disappearing, which is typically while the numbers still look great.
Is it for you?
Best for
Creators, brands or companies at a plateau after several successful iterations of one format, especially as the category cools.
Not ideal for
Early-stage work with no established pattern, or acts whose entire proposition is deliberate sameness.
From the transcript
“If you're part of a movement, and if you're riding a wave of a movement, and if the movement goes away, look closely at whether…”
“If they made another one like their last one, it would have been wildly successful, and maybe one more, but then it would have sounded…”
“There's not a right or a wrong way. It really is looking at all of the elements, and so much of it has to do…”
From the episode
#649: Rick Rubin, Legendary Producer — Timeless Methods for Unlocking Creativity, Secrets Hidden in Plain Sight, The Future with AI, Helpful Distractions, Working with Strong Personalities, Breaking Out of “The Sameness,” and More